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HR Edge Finder

Who is most likely to go deep today. Probability is built from contact quality — barrel rate, xISO and fly-ball profile — log5-blended against the starter's home-run rate allowed, then adjusted for platoon, the park's home-run factor for that batter's handedness, and air density at first pitch. Priced against real home-run props.

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Method & honest limits



  

    Read this before betting. Home-run props carry roughly 20–25% bookmaker margin
    — far more than a moneyline. Most of this board is correctly PASS:
    a positive edge against the de-vigged price can still be a losing bet at the price
    actually offered, which is why EV and edge are shown separately. Rows marked
    projected were computed before lineups were posted.
    Not financial advice.