Probability that no run scores in the first inning, computed by propagating an exact base-out state distribution through the half inning — not by fitting a Poisson to projected runs. Priced against real sportsbook numbers from the first-inning 0.5 total, de-vigged against the sharpest book quoting the game.
Shown whether or not an edge cleared the threshold. If the model only ever appeared when it disagreed with the market you could not tell a real read from a lucky one.
| Game | Model NRFI | Market NRFI | Edge | Lean | Books | Lineups |
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