A statistically honest model for No-Run-First-Inning and
First-5-Innings totals. It builds fair odds from leak-free features,
compares them to the market after removing vig, and backtests with
walk-forward validation. It is built to refuse to claim profitability it
cannot prove — small samples, negative ROI, or a confidence interval
that touches zero all force a "no edge" verdict.
Today's slate — live model run
Read this before acting on any pick below. The cross-season backtest
(2023–2025, real closing lines) shows no statistically proven edge
for this model. These "edges" are the model's read vs the current line —
speculative, not validated profit. Bet at your own risk, if at all.